I’ve never claimed to be a statistical guru or anything, but one thing I’m pretty good at is figuring out the relative validity of a given hypothesis. And I’m also pretty good at spending a lot of time wondering about random shit, especially when those things are related to football, which inevitably leads me to spending an absurd amount of time unraveling threads of data. Which I did this week. So let me share…

My initial question was essentially: “Has the NFL fundamentally changed over the past 20 years? If so, has the traditional formula for winning in the NFL also changed?”

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